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ATLAS / Macro Radar / Core PCE

US Core PCE Inflation

Inflation · source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Core PCE is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge — core personal-consumption prices excluding food and energy.

Latest
3.3% y/y
Previous
3.2% y/y
Surprise vs trend
+2.5σ
well above its recent 12-release trend

Trend — last releases

2026-04-013.3% y/y
2026-03-013.2% y/y
2026-02-013.0% y/y
2026-01-013.1% y/y
2025-12-013.0% y/y
2025-11-012.8% y/y

How Atlas reads Core PCE

Atlas shows the real released figure and a surprise score — how far the latest print sits from its own trailing 12-release trend, in standard deviations. A reading above +0.5σ ran hot versus recent history; below −0.5σ ran cold. There is no invented forecast: where a consensus is not freely available, Atlas shows the trend instead of guessing a number. Every figure here is the real value published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and distributed via FRED.

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Updated 2026-06-21. Figures sourced from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Research and educational use only. Not financial advice. No brokerage execution.